Definitions and Clarifications of Bet Terms
Definitions of terms of the bet are critical for Augur to be successful in the long-term. This is especially the case for topics in politics and world events. For example, the question as whether China and India will go to war depends very much on the working definition of war. Is there a "declared war" or is it just fighting and if it's fighting, do skirmishes meet the threshold or does there have to a certain number of troops to be engaged in combat, etc. One group that was particularly successful at setting the terms of the bet was IARPA with its Good Judgment Project a few years back. Hope this is helpful.